The Shifting Sands of Energy: Ithaca Energy and U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela

March 31, 2025, 6:50 am
The energy landscape is a shifting terrain, marked by new opportunities and formidable challenges. Ithaca Energy, a key player in the North Sea, is navigating these waters with ambition. Meanwhile, the U.S. government is tightening its grip on Venezuela's oil exports, sending ripples through the global market.

Ithaca Energy is poised for growth. The company recently announced plans to kick off production at the Rosebank oil field by 2026/27. This comes despite a recent court ruling that deemed the project’s approval unlawful. It’s a classic case of navigating stormy seas. Ithaca is not backing down. They are working closely with regulators to revise their application.

The financial stakes are high. Ithaca expects capital costs for Rosebank to range between $190 million and $230 million. This is a significant investment, especially after spending around $198 million in 2024. The company holds a 20% stake in Rosebank, with Norway’s Equinor owning the remainder.

In its recent full-year results, Ithaca reported a dip in profits. Earnings fell from $292.6 million to $153.2 million, largely due to the Energy Profits Levy, also known as the windfall tax. Basic earnings per share dropped from 29.1 cents to 13.2 cents. The company attributed this decline to lower production volumes and reduced prices compared to 2023.

Yet, there’s a silver lining. Ithaca forecasts higher production in 2025, bolstered by its recent acquisition of Eni’s UK assets for $975.8 million. They anticipate production levels between 105,000 to 115,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This acquisition is a strategic move, positioning Ithaca for a robust recovery.

The executive chairman emphasized a transformative year for Ithaca. The company is focusing on high-grading investments and executing a strategy aimed at maximizing long-term shareholder value. It’s a calculated approach, akin to a chess game where each move is crucial.

On the other side of the globe, the U.S. is tightening its sanctions on Venezuela. The Biden administration is revoking authorizations for foreign partners of Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA. This decision is a stark shift in policy, aimed at squeezing Venezuela’s oil exports.

In recent years, U.S. licenses allowed companies from Europe and Asia to import Venezuelan oil. But with the recent imposition of secondary tariffs on buyers, many companies have halted imports. The combination of tariffs and license cancellations is expected to further diminish Venezuela's oil exports, which had already begun to decline.

In February, Venezuela exported 910,000 barrels per day, a slight increase from January. However, the outlook is grim. The U.S. has sent a clear message: the sanctions are tightening. This is reminiscent of past measures that crippled Venezuela’s oil output, forcing PDVSA to rely on intermediaries for exports.

The U.S. government’s actions reflect a broader strategy. The withdrawal of key licenses signals a hardening stance against President Nicolás Maduro’s government. The U.S. is not just targeting oil; it’s also addressing migration issues, particularly concerning Venezuelans in the U.S.

Maduro has decried the sanctions as an "economic war." His government faces mounting pressure, especially after reports of irregularities in the 2024 elections. The U.S. is leveraging its economic power to push for electoral reforms and a change in governance.

As Ithaca Energy charts its course through the North Sea, the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela create a complex backdrop. The energy market is interconnected, and decisions made in one corner of the world can have far-reaching effects.

Ithaca’s ambition to ramp up production contrasts sharply with Venezuela’s struggles. While one company seeks to expand and thrive, the other grapples with the consequences of international policy.

The energy sector is a battleground of interests. Companies like Ithaca are driven by the promise of profit and growth. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions shape the landscape, influencing everything from production levels to market prices.

In conclusion, the energy sector is a dynamic arena. Ithaca Energy is positioning itself for growth, despite legal hurdles and financial challenges. Conversely, the U.S. is tightening its grip on Venezuela, aiming to curb its oil exports and influence. The interplay between these forces will shape the future of energy, creating both opportunities and obstacles. The sands are shifting, and only those who adapt will thrive.